The bathtub analogy
Reading time: 2 minutesImagine a bath almost full of water - just below the top of the bath. Then the tap starts dripping. Of course the bath starts to get completely full and eventually the bath overflows.
(Graphic design is my passion)
The original water bath is the balanced state of the carbon lifecycle. The dripping tap is our human caused carbon emissions. It can be only a small drip but eventually it adds up and pushes things beyond their natural state.
Now imagine the bath but the drain is open and water is flowing out. The tap is running at the exact same rate as the water is leaving the bath. Again a balance. If we turn the tap on faster eventually we overflow the bath. If the drain starts to close more water backs up and we overflow the bath.
The drain closing represents some of the disruption to the natural carbon lifecycle - e.g. if the oceans stop absorbing carbon emissions at the same rate, or glaciers melt (adding water to the bath AND removing their cooling effect!), or we chop down more and more forests. The double whammy is if we did both - turn the tap on while the drain closes - but that’s exactly a risk we’re facing.
Climate action is about turning down the tap and trying to open the drain. i.e. reduce emissions in the first place, and try to restore or expand the natural carbon absorption in the first place. The former is much easier than the latter.