Climate Tipping points
Reading time: 3 minutesTL;DR
A tipping point is where the balance of a system changes so that it now has momentum of it’s own.
A simple example of standing upright - if you lean forward far enough you will reach the point where your body can no longer hold you and you’ll fall forwards onto your face.
In climate terms we’re talking about when systems go past a point of no return (in our lifetime).
For example as the ice melts on Greenland, it’ll start to melt faster and faster, eventually getting to a point where even if we lowered the CO2 in the atmosphere it won’t return for thousands or millions of years.
Explanation
Climate tipping points and Feedback loops are closely related concepts.
Letting warming go above 1.5°C risks us reaching these climate tipping points. Going above 2°C warming is very likely to reach these tipping points. That is why it is so important to limit warming to 1.5°C or at the very worst 2°C.
If we reach multiple tipping points we’re in a world that has runaway warming that we can’t control by reducing our emissions.
The main tipping points that could be triggered by climate are:
- Greenland ice sheet melting
- Permafrost loss
- West Antarctic ice sheet disintegration
- Amazon rainforest dieback
- Boreal forest shift
- Coral reef die-off
- West African monsoon shift
- Indian monsoon shift
- Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) breakdown
If you want a detailed guide to each of these then check out this excellent article.
Social Tipping Points
Tipping points aren’t just for climate change, social change has tipping points as well. This can be used to our advantage. Social tipping points reflect the point where enough of the population has accepted a change and then the new state happens - for example marriage equality or civil rights. While these examples obviously require legislation changes, they happened without 100% of society on board (unfortunately). As this article also correctly points out, social tipping points aren’t always positive.
We don’t need to convince everyone about climate change action, we just need to convince enough. Don’t waste your time arguing with climate change deniers, they’re not coming on board now so let’s focus on that soft middle of people who want climate action but just aren’t sure how to go about it.
Further reading
Exceeding 1.5°C global warming could trigger multiple climate tipping points 9 September 2022
Tipping points in the climate system
Earth on the verge of five catastrophic climate tipping points, scientists warn 6 December 2023
Dangerous climate tipping points will affect Australia. The risks are real and cannot be ignored 6 February 2024
Explainer: Nine ‘tipping points’ that could be triggered by climate change 10 February 2020
Social tipping dynamics for stabilizing Earth’s climate by 2050 21 January 2020
Climate change can drive social tipping points – for better or for worse 1 August 2023